1	Peak Oil – The End of the Petroleum Age – What Next?
2	Outline Explaining Peak Oil What we can do
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7	Peak to Peak 40 years US-48
8	World Real Discovery Trend
9	All Oil & Gas
10	Where is it? Regular Conventional Oil
11	Predictions of World Oil Peak Deffeyes: Dec, 2005 Simmons: 2007-2009 Goodstein: 2007-2009 Skrebowski: After 2007 Bakhtiari: Before 2010 China: 2012 Laherrere: 2010-2020 Douglas - Westwood: As early as 2016 EIA (Nominal case): 2016 Shell: After 2020 Campbell: Around 2010 USGS 95% probability 2032 USGS 5% probability 2012
12	USGS Methodology Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management: “The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) claims the production peak at 2032, but don't believe it. The U.S. government has an official policy of calculating reserves based on projected demand, not on projected supply. (Yes, you read that correctly!)” As the Energy Information Agency explains, "estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels."
13	Dick Cheney (1999) In a speech to the International Petroleum Institute in London (late 1999), Dick Cheney, then chairman of the world’s largest oil services company, Halliburton, presented the picture of world oil supply and demand to industry insiders. “By some estimates,” Cheney stated, “there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.” Cheney ended on an alarming note: “That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day.” This is more than six times Saudi Arabia’s current output.
14	2006 Update Through July, 2006 (based on EIA Data), the world has produced about 142 million barrels less oil than if we had simply maintained the 12/05 production rate. This is a shortfall of about 675,000 bpd. During this time period, oil prices traded in the highest (nominal) price range in history. We are virtually certain that all four oil fields currently producing one mbpd or more are in decline (we are certain that three of the four are in decline). Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. His e-mail address is westexas@aol.com (13 Oct 2006)
15	WORLD OIL DEMAND The world currently uses 84 mbd of oil, and that will rise by around 2-3 mbd by the end of the year.
16	Impacts “Crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015.” - French investment bank Ixis-CIB, April 2005 Peak Oil will likely have a major impact on the economy and on food production and distribution! Additional impacts are likely on transportation, housing, medicine, education and plastics.
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18	Peak Oil at UW-Stout Peak Oil Committee – meet every 2 weeks Campus Education about Peak Oil–films, speakers Campus Efforts to reduce Energy Consumption Investigation of Funding for Renewable Energy Discuss Curricular Implications of Peak Oil Possible Creation of Center for Peak Oil and Sustainability Peak Oil and Climate Change (Global Warming) have related implications - reduce fossil fuel use
19	Collective Action - Adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol (Uppsala) - Reduce Energy Consumption to World Depletion rate (currently 2.6%)
20	Individual Action Get informed “End of Suburbia” (tonight 9:30-11, Great Hall) Inform others Reduce Energy Consumption!!!!! (Transportation, Heating/Cooling, Electricity) Buy Local (Goods and Food) The slower we use up what’s left, the more time we have to transition to future energy options!
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22	Resources www.uwstout.edu/peakoil www.energybulletin.net www.postcarbon.org